Anglo American investors, already hit by turbulent news during the past year because the company has had to bail out its platinum subsidiary, decided against an annual dividend, saw its board chair replaced, been engaged in battle to ward off a merger bid by Xstrata, and has begun divesting what it calls “non-core” businesses, now have something else to worry about — a new Investor Advisory released today warning of serious risks posed by Anglo’s involvement in the Pebble Mine project in Alaska. Now in the pre-permitting phase, the project — which would be the larger open-pit gold, copper and molybdenum mine anywhere in North America — faces a coordinated opposition from Alaska Natives, fishing, hunting and tourism interests, and thousands of dedicated Alaskans from the general public concerned for the pristine Bristol Bay Watershed in which the mine would be built. The mega-project also faces extensive technical, geographical and energy impediments that will cost millions to overcome and which could be the subjects of legal actions if the project proceeds into the permitting phase. All this, detailed in the report, will likely mean long delays, and perhaps thwart the project altogether. To read the report in it’s entirety, go here.
The Blog 
Anglo American investors should consider risks posed by Pebble Mine proposal
October 29th, 2009Poll Finds Bristol Bay Residents Oppose Pebble Mine
October 26th, 2009A recent poll conducted by Craciun Research demonstrates the overwhelming opposition to the Pebble Mine project in the Bristol Bay region. They favor subsistence over mining. Alaska Natives, fishermen and business owners agree the mine would threaten the Bristol Bay fishery on which so many livelihoods depend. Below is the Sept. 22 press release announcing the poll results. Below that is a summary of the Craciun report.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Contacts: Bobby Andrew, Nunamta Aulukestai, (907) 842-5983
Lydia Olympic, member of local Alaska Delegation to the U.K., (907) 301-1873
Jean Craciun, president and CEO, Craciun Research, (907) 279-3982
Poll Finds Bristol Bay Residents Favor Subsistence Over Pebble Mine
Groundbreaking research finds 79 percent believe mine would damage salmon fishery;
Native leaders and fishermen ask Anglo American CEO to honor promise
Anchorage, Alaska – A new poll released today finds an overwhelming majority of
Bristol Bay residents strongly prefer their subsistence lifestyle to the promise of jobs at
the proposed Pebble Mine.
The poll, which is the most in-depth survey of local Alaska Natives’ opinion on the
Pebble Mine, found that 79 percent of respondents believe the mine, located in the
headwaters of two of the region’s largest salmon-spawning rivers, would damage Bristol
Bay’s wild salmon fishery – a key resource that many residents depend on for income
and food.
“What Anglo American’s CEO told us when we met in London earlier this year was that
if local communities did not want Pebble mine, then Anglo American would not build it,”
said Bobby Andrew, spokesperson for Nunamta Aulukestai, a coalition of eight village
corporations that commissioned the survey. “A majority of local people know the mine
will pollute and destroy subsistence, commercial and sport fishing and adamantly oppose
it.
“We are asking Anglo American to honor its promise and withdraw from the Pebble
project,” Andrew said.
Andrew and the three other local Alaskans who met with Anglo American executives and
shareholders earlier this year in London sent a letter today to the company’s CEO,
Cynthia Carroll, along with the survey results. They asked her to adhere to promises she
made in a private meeting that the company would abandon the Pebble project if local
communities rejected it.
The letter dated September 22, 2009, stated: “Opposition to the mine is overwhelming
and unwavering despite significant outreach efforts by Anglo American and Northern
Dynasty over the years…. With that in mind, we ask you to keep your stated commitment
to forego development of the Pebble mine given the ongoing community opposition.”
“We are not going to risk our subsistence way of life, which has sustained our families
for generations, on the Pebble Mine,” said Lydia Olympic, an Igiugig native who joined
the group that met with top company officials in London in April. “Mining is not the
answer.
“Sustainable development can only be based on our wild salmon, clean water, and
renewable energy – not on a mine that will pollute our land and water with toxic waste,”
Olympic said.
The poll released today was conducted by Anchorage-based Craciun Research, which
sampled 411 Bristol Bay residents from six parts of the Bristol Bay region between May
18, 2009 and June 2, 2009. It was statistically drawn to get an accurate assessment of
opinion in each of those areas: Alaska Peninsula, Lake Iliamna/Lake Clark, Nushagak
Bay, Nushagak River, Togiak, and Kwichak Bay. The margin of error was plus or minus
4.8 percent.
Among the survey’s main findings:
• The vast majority of residents favored renewable energy development (94
percent), value-added fish packing (89 percent), and tourism that Alaska Native
communities could be involved (82 percent) in over mining.
• Survey respondents agreed almost unanimously (97 percent) that maintaining
subsistence-lifestyle resources and their subsistence lifestyle is important.
• Seventy-two percent of those surveyed reported that a significant part of their diet
came from fish, game, berries and other subsistence sources.
• Only 8 percent of survey respondents supported the Pebble mine project, less than
the one-third the number that support oil and gas drilling.
• The strongest opposition to the mine was in the Nushagak Bay area, but even in
Iliamna-Lake Clark area, where local businesses benefit more from current
exploration activities, 73 percent of survey respondents oppose the mine.
• A majority (78 percent) thought Pebble mine would damage commercial, guided
or subsistence fishing.
• A majority of respondents agreed that most jobs created by the mine would go to
outsiders, not locals.
• Few respondents thought that mining could be done without harming the
environment.
To download a copy of the survey report and the letter to Anglo American CEO Cynthia
Carroll, go to: http://nunamtasurvey.info
###
Summary Report
Bristol Bay Residents
Views on Development
September 18, 2009
Embargoed for Release, Sept. 22, 2009, at 12:01 AM
Study Commissioned by Nunamta Aulukestai
Copyright 2009, Craciun Research All rights reserved.
1334 K. Street, Suite B, Anchorage Alaska 99501
t: 907.279.3982 f: 907.279.0321
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 2
Nunamta Aulukestai (Caretakers of Our Lands) is an association of eight Village Corporations from the Bristol Bay region who are committed to protecting the Bristol Bay region from destructive mining, and to protecting their renewable resources and subsistence lifestyle. The Board of Directors of Nunamta Aulukestai requested Craciun Research conduct a market research study exploring future desires for resource development. Craciun Research has been conducting market research and public opinion polls in Alaska, nationally and internationally for over twenty years.
Company founder Jean Craciun, a Sociologist, has pioneered innovative research with Alaska’s Native Peoples and has extended that knowledge to national work with Native Americans. Her belief that researchers are required to adapt techniques in a way that is sensitive to cultural requirements has proven highly effective. As a result, Craciun Research has been successful in conducting both quantitative and qualitative research studies that have explored the experience and perceptions of unique target populations such as those found here in this study.
The study was conducted by Craciun Research in May-June, 2009. In a sample of four hundred and eleven (N=411) adult residents of the Bristol Bay area that was very carefully drawn to obtain an accurate cross-section of six different areas of Bristol Bay. In this study, Craciun Research discovered strong opposition to the Pebble Mine: 73% strongly oppose, and 6% somewhat oppose, while 6% strongly favor it and 2% somewhat favor it. The remaining 10% are keeping an open mind. This opposition extends across all six areas surveyed. In the Lake Iliamna, Lake Clark area 63% strongly oppose the mine and 10% somewhat oppose it.
In related questions it was found that large percentages agree that Pebble Mine would seriously damage commercial, guided or subsistence fishing (78% strongly or somewhat agree) and that any local jobs provided by Pebble would not be worth the damage, (73% agree), while 10% agree that they would give up some subsistence opportunities in return for the jobs that Pebble would provide (73% strongly disagree).
Other questions related to Pebble mine showed a general doubt about the operation.
Seventy-one percent agree, at least somewhat, that most of the jobs created by Pebble Mine would be taken by people from outside the area.
Sixty percent agree strongly or somewhat, that an influx of mine workers into the Bristol Bay area would increase competition for subsistence.
In spite of their attitude toward the Pebble Mine, 55% of those interviewed strongly or somewhat agree that the lack of good-paying jobs is the most important problem in the Bristol Bay area.
Finally, 48% of those surveyed get most of their diet from subsistence and another 24% get at least half from that source. Fifty-seven percent of the households contain a commercial fisher.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 3
THE SURVEY
The survey of Bristol Bay adult residents was conducted by Craciun Research between May 18th and June 2nd, 2009.
THE SAMPLE
The sample was chosen at random from citizens of Bristol Bay. Great care was used to obtain an accurate cross-section of the Bay, surveying people in twenty-nine villages in six areas. The sample was made in proportion to the adult populations of the areas, as shown in Chart A.
The overall probability is 19 out of 20 that, for a sample of this size, had researchers sought to interview every household using the same questionnaire, the findings would differ from these overall survey results by no more than 4.8 percentage points in either direction. That is, the margin of error is +/- 4.8%.
CHART A.1: AREAS SURVEYED
BACKGROUND & METHODS
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 4
The sample consists of 54% males and 46% females with a median age of forty-six.
CHART A.2: AGES OF THOSE SURVEYED
CHART A.3: GENDER OF THOSE SURVEYED
Seventy-two percent were Yup’ik, Alutiq or both, 5% were other Alaskan Natives and 23% non-Native.
CHART A.4: ETHNICITIES OF THOSE SURVEYED
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 5
Question: I will read you a list of industries that may become more important in Bristol Bay. For each, please tell me whether you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose. [First six questions on the list asked at random]
A tourist industry that the community could be more involved in
Value-added fish processing plants for the commercial fisheries; plants where
they would cut the fish up and prepackage to sell for easy cooking.
Development and maintenance of alternative energy sources, like wind, solar or
geothermal energy.
Mining for other minerals
The oil and gas industry
Using the same scale, do you favor or oppose the Pebble Mine, near Iliamna?
How about the proposed Shell Oil exploration and possible development
offshore near Port Moller on the Alaska Peninsula?
Ninety-four percent of all respondents strongly or somewhat favor the development and maintenance of alternative energy resources, 89% strongly or somewhat favor value-added fish processing plants, and 82% strongly or somewhat favor a tourist industry that the community could be more involved in.
CHART B.1: ATTITUDES TOWARD LOCAL INDUSTRY
RESEARCH FINDINGS
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 6
As for the extraction industries, support is very low, only 8% strongly or somewhat favor the Pebble Mine.
CHART B.2: ATTITUDES TOWARD EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 7
This chart shows opposition (rather than support) to Pebble mine as it is distributed among the various areas.
Overall, 79% strongly or somewhat oppose Pebble Mine, with opposition lowest in Kwichak Bay (64% strongly or somewhat oppose) and highest in Nushagak River (82%). The total opposition in the Lakes District is 73%.
CHART B.3: ATTITUDES TOWARD PEBBLE MINE BY AREA
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 8
Question: Now I am going to read you a list of statements people have made about Bristol Bay. Please tell me whether you strongly agree with the statement, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree. [Questions asked at random]
The Pebble Mine would seriously damage commercial, guided, or subsistence fishing.
Other businesses can be started in the Bristol Bay area that could provide as many
jobs as Pebble and/or offshore oil and gas production.
Any local jobs provided by Pebble are not worth the damage it would do to the
land, water or natural environment.
Many people are working on getting more jobs for the Bristol Bay Area.
The lack of good-paying jobs is the most important problem in the Bristol Bay
area.
Offshore oil production would be a serious threat to commercial, guided or
subsistence fishing.
I would be willing to give up some subsistence opportunities in return for the
jobs that Pebble would provide.
There are some ways of mining that can be done without much damage to the environment.
An influx of mine workers into the Bristol Bay area would increase competition for subsistence.
Most of the jobs created by Pebble Mine would be taken by people from outside the area.
Many of the people from Bristol Bay who go to work in Pebble Mine would eventually move away as their jobs or income changed.
Large percentages agree that Pebble Mine would seriously damage commercial, guided or subsistence fishing (78% strongly or somewhat agree) and that any local jobs provided by Pebble would not be worth the damage, (73% agree), while 10% agree that they would give up some subsistence opportunities in return for the jobs that Pebble would provide.
Most of the respondents (71%) agree, at least somewhat, that most of the jobs created by Pebble Mine would be taken by people from outside the area.
Nearly as many, 60% agree strongly or somewhat, that an influx of mine workers into the Bristol Bay area would increase competition for subsistence.
Fewer (50%) fear that many of the people from Bristol Bay who go to work in Pebble Mine would eventually move away as their jobs or income changed.
The chart may be found on the next page.
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 9
CHART C.1: AGREE/DISAGREE STATEMENTS ABOUT PEBBLE MINE
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 10
In spite of their attitude toward the Pebble Mine, 55% of those interviewed strongly or somewhat agree that the lack of good-paying jobs is the most important problem in the Bristol Bay area. And about the same percentage (54%), agree that many people are working on getting more jobs for the Bristol Bay Area.
However, only 24% agree that there are some ways of mining that can be done without much damage to the environment.
Two-thirds (67%) at least somewhat agree that offshore oil production would be a serious threat to commercial, guided or subsistence fishing.
CHART C.2: AGREE/DISAGREE STATEMENTS ABOUT THE ECONOMY
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 11
Question: Whether or not you get a chance to do it yourself, how important is maintaining the subsistence lifestyle to you - very important, somewhat important, somewhat unimportant, or not at all unimportant??
Question: How important is it to you to make sure there are plenty of renewable or subsistence resources, like fish, game and berries for the next generations?
Question: How important is commercial fishing to your community?
Making sure there are plenty of renewable or subsistence resources such as fish, game and berries for the next generations is very or somewhat important to 99% of the respondents in our study, and 97% feel maintaining the subsistence lifestyle is important as well.
Ninety-six percent (96%) think commercial fishing is very or somewhat important to their community.
CHART D.1 IMPORTANCE OF THE SUBSISTENCE LIFESTYLE
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 12
Question: How much of your family’s diet comes from subsistence foods such as salmon, caribou, moose, seal, wild berries? — Most of it, about half of it, some of it or none of it
Forty-eight percent of those surveyed get most of their diet from subsistence and another 24% get at least half from that source.
CHART D.2: USE OF SUBSISTENCE FOODS
Craciun Research Nunamta Aulukestai September 2009 13
Question: Do you or someone in your household fish commercially, or serve as a fishing guide?
Question: [IF NO] Have you or someone in your household ever been involved in commercial fishing?
In 57% of these Bristol Bay households, someone fishes commercially. Another 26% have had personal contact with commercial fishing.
CHART E.1: USE OF SUBSISTENCE FOODS
Xstrata abandons bid for Anglo American, AA’s stock price falls
October 15th, 2009Swiss Mining giant Xstrata has given up its effort to merge with Anglo American, half-owner of the Pebble Limited Partnership. The company’s proposal for a “merger of equals” was largely rejected by Anglo, though for a time the idea had appeal with some stockholders. The merger was expected to create a mining group worth an estimated $96 billion. Xstrata declined Anglo shareholder demands that it pay a premium as high as 30 percent. On word the merger was dead, the stock prices of both Xstrata and Anglo fell on world markets.
Xstrata told to put up or shut up
October 1st, 2009According to the Financial Times, the company that earlier this year proposed a merger of equals (all-share merger) with Anglo American plc, has been told by the Britain’s Panel on Takeovers and Mergers it must make a formal bid by Oct. 20, or quit sniffing around for six months. Anglo has so far dissed Xstrata’s overtures, calling the original terms “totally unacceptable.” There has been some interest, however, among some Anglo shareholders.
“The time has come to draw a line under this proposal,” a person close to the situation told the Financial Times.
Xstrata must either formalize its original proposal, sweeten the pot, or abandon the effort. Xstrata has said a merger would create efficiencies and produce a mega-mining-giant worth an estimated $68 billion.
What this may or may not mean for Anglo’s involvement in the Pebble project is not clear.
Anglo-Xstrata merger hopes fading
September 30th, 2009It appears the on-again, off-again bid by Swiss-based Xstrata for a merger-of-equals with Anglo-American, plc, partner with Northern Dynasty in the Pebble project, is fading even from the back burner. Shares of both companies fell yesterday after the Société Générale downgraded both as prospects for a merger. Analyst Alain William said, “We are now convinced the deal is unlikely to proceed.” In June, Anglo rejected Xstrata’s proposal.
Mining opponents petition Interior Secretary
August 27th, 2009Interior Secretary Ken Salazar should now know how big the opposition to mining in the Bristol Bay watershed is. On Sept. 12, a broad coalition of hunters, anglers, guides and outfitters, representing millions of Americans sent a letter to the secretary asking that he direct his new Bureau of Land Management chief, Bob Abbey, to reverse a Bush-administration move to open 1.1 million acres of federal land in the region to mining. The federal land is adjacent to state land where the Pebble Limited Partnership hopes to build the Pebble Mine. Opposition to that mine is widespread and growing.
See Press release here.
See letter to Salazar here.
The Pebble project is drawing opponents in huge numbers, a fact that should be of increasing interest to mining investors who may soon be eyeing the Anglo American project as too risky for investment. Salazar can’t impact the state land directly, but he could withdraw 1.1 million acres of federal land from consideration as a future mining district. So doing would protect valuable and sustainable fish and wildlife habitat that support commercial, sport and subsistence fishing and hunting.
State actions regarding proposed Chuitna coal mine could impact Pebble mine decisions
August 18th, 2009Bob Shavelson, director of Cook Inletkeeper, which works to protect the Cook Inlet watershed, says Bristol Bay region residents should watch how the state moves on the Chuitna Coal Mine project proposed by PacRim Coal LP, because decisions there could influence permitting decisions at the Pebble mine north of Iliamna.
In that regard, state officials now have to deal with three new scientific reports debunking PacRim’s claims that after strip mining through 11 miles of salmon streams (tributaries to the Chuit River) and disrupting huge swaths of verdant, wildlife-rich wetlands they can restore those systems to their former pristine natures.
The author of one report, Dr. Margaret Palmer, professor of Entomology and Biology at the University of Maryland, said, “There is no scientific evidence that wetlands or streams can be put back together to be living, healthy ecosystems after the kind of mining impacts described in the PacRim reports. The science just isn’t there. Experimentation should not be confused with sound, science-based knowledge.”
If permitted, the Chuitna mine would be the first ever allowed in Alaska to strip mine through an active salmon stream.
Palmer along with fisheries biologist Lance Trasky, who has 32 years experience with Alaska fisheries, and Dr. Mark Wipfli, currently associated professor with the University of Alaska Fairbanks, say stream restoration following mining is impossible and that an extensive search of scientific literature turned up no example where restoration has ever worked.
Further, the scientists report that PacRim’s surface and groundwater studies are inadequate for determining what mining operations would do to the Chuit River, its food webs, or to its critically important topology and ecology. The river system is home to spawning and rearing grounds for all five species of Pacific salmon, and an important source of fish for commercial, sport and subsistence economies in Cook Inlet.
Such matters are also forefront in the debate over the possible and likely impacts of Pebble mine, which would be built in the headwaters of Bristol Bay, home to the richest sockeye salmon run in the world. Loss of those systems from mine pollution would devestate Bristol Bay fisheries.
Brothers biking from Alaska to Argentina to focus attention on protecting Bristol Bay
August 6th, 2009Seth and Parker Berling, of San Francisco and San Diego, California, respectively, recently left Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, on a 17,000-mile bike ride to Tierra Del Fuego, Argentina. The mega-pedal across two hemispheres, two continents and 15 nations is expected to take 18 to 24 months. Along the way the Berlings hope to draw attention to the threat the proposed Pebble mine project poses to the sockeye salmon fishery at Bristol Bay. Pebble would be one of the world’s largest open-pit mines and would sit in the heart of the pristine Bristol Bay watershed. Describing themselves as the “Pebble Pedalers,” the Berling’s say they first became aware of the threat when seeing a trailer of the documentary “Red Gold” which tells the story of Bristol Bay and the vital nature of the salmon fishery, one of the world’s last remaining wild salmon runs. The bike ride is also a fund-raiser for Trout Unlimited, which has been working to protect Bristol Bay. For more on the trek and to follow the Berling’s on their journey, visit the Pebble Pedalers web home.
Anglo American profits tumble; corporation cuts jobs
July 31st, 2009The London-based mining giant Anglo American, half-owner of the Pebble project, is being hit hard by the global recession and collapse of metals prices. According to an article in the Guardian, on July 30 Anglo announced a 69 percent decline in underlying profits (The Business Times explains this as “earnings per share.”) in the first six months of this year. Profits from subsidiaries Anglo Platinum and diamond producer De Beers virtually disappeared.
In an effort to deliver on a promised savings of $2 billion by 2011, the company already has cut 15,405 jobs worldwide, heading toward a total workforce reduction of 19,000 by the end of 2009.
This has hit South Africa hard. The nation is suffering its worst recession in 17 years. The Guardian reports that according to S.A. trade unions, a fifth of all South Africa’s recession-linked job losses are at Anglo Platinum.
Earlier this year, Anglo shed the last 11.3 percent sharehold in AngloGold Ashanti, fueling concerns that the company is losing touch with its African roots.
It is not clear whether Anglo’s current financial problems will ultimately affect its participation in the Pebble project where it is partnered with Canada-based Northern Dynasty. But even as it’s problems are wreaking havoc in Africa, Anglo itself continues its efforts to fight off a “merger-of-equals” bid by Swiss-based mining giant Xstrata, a merger some shareholders favor. That fact has put Anglo CEO Cynthia Carroll at odds with some sectors of the shareholder base.
Hal Spence
Homer
Media coverage of Alaskans’ efforts to protect Bristol Bay
July 30th, 2009The move by Bristol Bay Alaska Native organization and other individuals to file lawsuit against the Alaska Department of Natural Resources for repeatedly violating the Alaska Constitution in granting permits for Pebble mine exploration has generated considerable media coverage.
See below to the fold to view the some of the media coverage…
Read the rest of this entry »
